JOS-00215082-69_215

ワガクニ ノ シキュウ ケイガン シボウリツ ノ ネンジ ヘンドウ ニタイスル ネンレイ ジダイ コホート コウカ ト2012 ネン カラ 2031 ネン ノ シキュウ ケイガン シボウリツ ノ ショウライ ヨソク

Age, Period, and Birth Cohort-Specific Effects on Cervical Cancer Mortality Rates in Japanese Women and Projections for Mortality Rates over 20-Year Period (2012?2031)

内田, 博之/小林, 瑞希/細渕, 亜実/太田, 彩乃/大竹, 一男/八巻, 努/内田, 昌希/小田切, 陽一/夏目, 秀視/小林, 順

Uchida, Hiroyuki / Kobayashi, Mizuki / Hosobuchi, Ami / Ohta, Ayano / Ohtake, Kazuo / Yamaki, Tutomu / Uchida, Masaki / Odagiri, Youichi / Natsume, Hideshi / Kobayashi, Jun

ウチダ, ヒロユキ/コバヤシ, ミズキ/ホソブチ, アミ/オオタ, アヤノ/オオタケ, カズオ/ヤマキ, ツトム/ウチダ, マサキ/オダギリ, ヨウイチ/ナツメ, ヒデシ/コバヤシ, ジュン

城西大学薬学部医療栄養学科病態解析学講座 / 城西大学薬学部薬学科製剤学講座 / 城西大学薬学部医療栄養学科病態解析学講座 / 城西大学薬学部医療栄養学科病態解析学講座 / 城西大学薬学部医療栄養学科病態解析学講座 / 城西大学薬学部薬学科製剤学講座 / 城西大学薬学部薬学科製剤学講座 /山梨県立大学大学院看護学研究科地域看護学 / 城西大学薬学部薬学科製剤学講座 / 城西大学薬学部医療栄養学科病態解析学講座

Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Department of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition, Division of Pathophysiology / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutics / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Department of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition, Division of Pathophysiology / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Department of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition, Division of Pathophysiology / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Department of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition, Division of Pathophysiology / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutics / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutics / Graduate School of Yamanashi Prefectural University, Division of Public Health Nursing / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutics / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Department of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition, Division of Pathophysiology

author

京都

日本衛生学会

ニホンエイセイガッカイ

The Japanese Society for Hygiene

AN00185923

00215082

Japanese journal of hygiene

69

3

2014-09

215

224

2013-10-21

2014-03-26

2015-02-03

info:doi/10.1265/jjh.69.215

Objectives: We aimed to determine the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cervical cancer mortality rate trends in Japanese women, by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Additionally, we analyzed projected mortality rates. Methods: We obtained data on the number of cervical cancer deaths in Japanese women from 1975?2011 from the national vital statistics and census population data. A cohort table of mortality rate data was analyzed on the basis of a Bayesian APC model. We also projected the mortality rates for the 2012?2031 period. Results: The period effect was relatively limited, compared with the age and cohort effects. The age effect increased suddenly from 25?29 to 45?49 years of age and gently increased thereafter. An analysis of the cohort effect on mortality rate trends revealed a steep decreasing slope for birth cohorts born from 1908?1940 and a subsequent sudden increase after 1945. The mortality rate projections indicated increasing trends from 40 to 74 years of age until the year 2031. Conclusions: The age effect increased from 25?29 years of age. This could be attributable to the high human papilloma virus (HPV) infection risk and the low cervical cancer screening rate. The cohort effect changed from decreasing to increasing after the early 1940s. This might be attributable to the spread of cervical cancer screening and treatment before 1940 and the high HPV infection risk and reduced cervical cancer screening rate after 1945. The projected mortality rate indicated an increasing trend until the year 2031.

cervical cancer/子宮頸がん/Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis/ベイズ型age-period-cohort分析/cohort effect/コホート効果/human papilloma virus/ヒトパピローマウイルス/cervical cancer screening/子宮頸がん検診

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