抄録 | Beginning in the latter half of 2012, because of monetary easing policies and expanded fiscal budgets on the national level, there was a corrective push against the strong yen, leading to an improved export environment, and rising stock values led to an onset of the wealth effect; these factors helped boost Niigata Prefecture's diffusion indexes. However, the consumption tax hike in April 2014 triggered another downturn. Though that was remedied, thereafter, the market did not manage to reach a prosperous state, and it continues to hold a cool mood. On hiring trends, though the active jobs-to-applicants ratio fell sharply to 0.44 in 2009, after the Lehman shock, it finally surpassed one-to-one in August of 2013 after five years and five months below that watermark― and it continues to rise. Though it did fall after the aforementioned consumption tax hike, it has trended positively once again since August 2015. Let us continue by looking at population, a deeply-connected figure with economic power. At present, Niigata Prefecture's population is approximately 2.3 million, which is on a decline outpacing the nation after its peak of 2.49 million in 1997. We particularly note that natural movement turned negative as of 1999 and has been more and more negative in each of the past sixteen years. Natural loss of population for Niigata has been greater than 10,000 for four years in a row leading up to 2015, when it was 11,980. This is the greatest factor behind Niigata's population decline. Further, this population decline has other major factors beyond natural reduction; the change in social movement from positive to negative, implying that more are leaving Niigata to other prefectures than coming to it from others, has also played a major role. Population reduction from social factors in 2015 was 6,141; this and natural population reduction needs to be dealt with through agile policy development. The common perception about Niigata may well be one as an agricultural region, but if we look at the total prefectural production, we see that the value-added from agriculture, fisheries, and forestry comprises \180 billion, or 2.0%. By comparison, manufacturing provides ¥1.6 trillion, or 17.4%. If we were to also compare this nationally, we would see that the weightings for agriculture, construction, power/gas/waterworks, and real estate are higher than the national average. In the manufacturing industry overall, manufactured goods shipments fell from ¥5.2 trillion in 2007, the year of the Lehman shock, to ¥4.6 trillion in 2014, a drop of around ¥600 billion. Though shipments have returned to or surpassed pre-Lehman shock levels for chemicals, foodstuffs, pulp/paper/paper products, and fabricated metal products, recovery still lags behind for electronic parts/devices, machinery (for production/business/general use), information and communications-electronics equipment, iron and steel, transportation equipment, and textiles. Though USD/JPY was between 110 and 120 before the Lehman shock, the Lehman shock and Great East Japan Earthquake helped send it down into the high 70s, causing serious loss of global competitiveness for domestic production and the likely ensuing movement of production hubs overseas. Niigata Prefecture has enacted an overarching policy plan called Yume Okoshi, or Creating Dreams. Its industrial policies seek to increase the value added in industries and improve the economic environment in Niigata. It works to revitalize industries that create value-added, promoting company cultivation, a strong Niigata brand, better hiring policies, inviting corporations to operate in Niigata and encouraging tourism initiatives. If we were to interpret Niigata Prefecture's industry composition and the state of companies operating within the prefecture as outlined above, we notice that these companies are of small scale and that they are often involved in the production of intermediate goods or in subcontracting. This is a composition with a poor disposition toward earning high value-added/profit. Further, the prefecture's economy is in a cooling-off state. With deflation and exchange rate variation, the increased consumption taxes and raw material costs― along with insufficient labor― have naturally helped constrain business management, particularly for small-to medium-sized enterprises. Given this scenario, there are broad-based industrial policy initiatives in place to primarily support the prefecture's small-to medium-sized enterprises, specifically by 1) supporting new corporate initiatives, 2) promoting entry into growth fields, 3) propping up the regional economy and stimulating investment demand, 4) conducting initiatives aimed at supporting stable hiring/employment, and 5) promoting the invitation of corporations to work in Niigata. This paper discusses the state of industry and industrial policy development in Niigata Prefecture. |