城西大学機関リポジトリJURAベイズ型age-period-cohort分析を用いた日本の予測平均余命の性差（2023～2047年）

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ベイズ型age-period-cohort分析を用いた日本の予測平均余命の性差（2023～2047年）

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ID	JOS-jjh.73.338
タイトル：カナ	ベイズガタ age-period-cohort ブンセキオモチイタニホンノヨソクヘイキンヨメイノセイサ 2023～2047 ネン
別タイトル	Gender Differences in Projected Life Expectancy in Japan (2023–2047) Determined by Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
著者：名前	内田, 博之/三藤, 瑠莉/瓶子, 英朗/斎籐, 雅文/小田切, 陽一/大竹, 一男/八巻, 努/内田, 昌希/夏目, 秀視/小林, 順
著者：別形式	Uchida, Hiroyuki / Mito, Ruri / Heishi, Hideaki / Saito, Masafumi / Odagiri, Youichi / Ohtake, Kazuo / Yamaki, Tutomu / Uchida, Masaki / Natsume, Hideshi / Kobayashi, Jun
著者：カナ	ウチダ, ヒロユキ/ミトウ, ルリ/ヘイシ, ヒデアキ/サイトウ, マサフミ/オダギリ, ヨウイチ/オオタケ, カズオ/ヤマキ, ツトム/ウチダ, マサキ/ナツメ, ヒデシ/コバヤシ, ジュン
著者：所属	城西大学大学院薬学研究科医療栄養学専攻 / 城西大学薬学部薬学科製剤学講座 / 城西大学薬学部薬学科製剤学講座 / 城西大学薬学部医療栄養学科臨床栄養学講座 / 山梨県立大学大学院看護学研究科地域看護学 / 城西大学薬学部医療栄養学科病態解析学講座 / 城西大学薬学部薬学科製剤学講座 / 城西大学大学院薬学研究科薬学専攻 / 城西大学大学院薬学研究科薬学専攻 / 城西大学大学院薬学研究科医療栄養学専攻
著者：所属(別形式）	Josai University, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Science, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutics / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Science, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutics / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Science, Department of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition, Division of Clinical Nutrition / Yamanashi Prefectural University, Graduate School of Nursing, Division of Public Health Nursing / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Science, Department of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition, Division of Pathophysiology / Josai University, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Science, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutics / Josai University, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutical Sciences / Josai University, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Pharmaceutical Sciences / Josai University, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Division of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition
著者版フラグ	publisher
出版地	京都
出版者	日本衛生学会
出版者：カナ	ニホンエイセイガッカイ
出版者：別名	THE JAPANESE SOCIETY FOR HYGIENE
NCID	AN00185923
冊子ISSN	00215082
電子ISSN	18826482
掲載誌名	日本衛生学雑誌
掲載誌名：翻訳	Nippon Eiseikagaku Zasshi, Japanese Journal of Hygiene
巻	73
号	3
刊行年月	2018-09
開始ページ	338
終了ページ	353
コンテンツ作成日	2017-09-02
コンテンツ修正日	2018-03-16
コンテンツ登録日	2019-02-15
識別番号：DOI	info:doi/10.1265/jjh.73.338
識別番号：DOI（リンク）	https://doi.org/10.1265/jjh.73.338
NII論文ID	130007493793
医中誌ID	2019137459
抄録	Objectives: In this study, we aimed to (1) determine the effects of age, period, and cohort on mortality rate trends between 1958 and 2012 in Japan and (2) assess gender differences in projected life expectancy (LE) for the 2023–2047 period.Methods: A time trend study was conducted using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. A Bayesian APC model was fitted to describe mortality rate trends for the 1958–2012 period and to project mortality rates for 2023–2047. LE was predicted by Chiang’s method using projected mortality rates.Results: Age, period, and cohort effects showed similar patterns between males and females. As time passes, gender differences in projected LE were larger among individuals over 65 years than among those under 65 years. Time series change rates of the extension of projected LE after excluding specific causes of death showed the following: smaller extension of projected LE in males in terms of mortality risk from malignant neoplasms, heart diseases, pneumonia, and accidents (under 65 years) and in females in terms of mortality risk from heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and suicide (over 65 years).Conclusions: Gender differences in projected LE are expected to be smaller before middle age and to be larger among seniors. These projected gender differences stem in part from the lower mortality risk among men than among women from malignant neoplasms, heart diseases, pneumonia, and accidents (under 65 years), and among women compared to men from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and suicide (over 65 years).
キーワード	life expectancy/平均余命/gender difference/性差/projections/予測/Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis/ベイズ型 age-period-cohort 分析/mortality rate/死亡率
言語	jpn
資源タイプ	text
ジャンル	01学術雑誌論文 / Journal Article
フォーマット	application/pdf
権利	Copyright © 2018 日本衛生学会
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このアイテムを表示する：URI	http://libir.josai.ac.jp/il/meta_pub/G0000284repository_JOS-jjh.73.338

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